Leaders need to understand complex, uncertain dynamic environments well enough to anticipate how initiatives will fare. To that end, they must ensure that critical information is gathered and synthesized. That, in turn, requires recruiting, rewarding, and retaining the best people that their resources allow, then enabling them to use their talents to the fullest. Finally, leaders must create communication channels, so that their people know which risks to analyze and just how much to trust the resulting work.
But how, exactly, is one supposed to go about doing these things? Or, to put it somewhat differently, what does a scientific approach to analyzing and evaluating such risks look like?
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